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Power Market Report

Spot Market & Control Reserve Market

Here you find our up-to-date power market report, an analysis of last week's prices on the German spot market and control reserve market. Every week directly from our Trading Floor.

Market Watch Germany - CW 3

Despite an initially low feed-in on Monday, wind dominated events on the German electricity market in the first half of the week. On Tuesday and Wednesday, the share of wind in the electricity mix fluctuated between 40% and 60%. The weekly peak was on Tuesday at 41 GW. After a short lull on Thursday (down to below 10 GW), wind climbed close to 30 GW on Friday again. Over the weekend, wind decreased continuously and fell below 10 GW once more on Sunday evening. In week 3, PV reached a new peak value for 2020: On Thursday, PV was at 14 GW, which helped cushion the temporary lull of wind. The residual load already peaked on Monday (55 GW) and was otherwise - with the exception of Thursday - well below 50 GW.

This graphic depics the production of wind and PV and the residual load of week 3

Spot Market

Short Term Prices

Looking at power prices, Monday and Thursday were the most expensive days of the week when residual load was above 50 GW. The baseload price peaked at 38.17 EUR/MWh on Thursday, illustrating the low price level of CW3. Due to the mild temperatures and high wind, the baseload price on Tuesday reached the week’s low at 23.36 EUR/MWh. DayAhead dropped to almost 0 EUR/MWh on Tuesday and Wednesday morning, and Intraday even dropped briefly to -3 EUR/MWh in the night from Tuesday to Wednesday.

The graphic shows the short-term prices of CW 3

Reserve Power

Average Reserve Power Energy Prices

The average positive mFRR (MRL) energy prices in CW3 were once again at a lower level compared to the previous week. Only in one time slice, the prices were above 4,000 EUR/MWh; mostly, the average prices fluctuated around 2,000 EUR/MWh. There were just two activations of positive mFRR, first in the last time slice on Monday (500 MW) and then in the third time slice on Wednesday (400 MW). The maximum capacity of positive aFRR (SRL) was activated in the third time slice on Wednesday at 1,460 MW (68 % of the reserved aFRR capacity). Average positive aFRR prices fluctuated around 1,000 EUR/MWh; only the third time slice on Thursday presented an outlier with an average price of 4,395 EUR/MWh. The average energy prices for negative control energy reached the daily high in the first two time slices. Negative mFRR prices peaked mostly just below 2,000 EUR/MWh, negative aFRR prices stayed around -1,000 EUR/MWh. Negative mFRR was not activated in calendar week 3; the most significant activation of negative aFRR was in the third time slice on Thursday at -1,000 MW.

This graphic shows the average control reserve prices of calendar week 3

Reserve Power

Average Reserve Power Capacity Prices

Average capacity prices for positive control energy continued their trend of the last two weeks of January – they peaked in the fifth time slice, fluctuating between 5 EUR/MW and 20 EUR/MW. Average negative mFRR capacity prices fell slightly compared to the previous week with daily peaks fluctuating between 2 EUR/MW (Sunday) and 12 EUR/MW (Tuesday). By contrast, average negative mFRR capacity prices increased slightly compared to calendar week 2 and peaked in the first time slice, finding the weekly low on Sunday at around 10 EUR/MW and the weekly high on Wednesday at 45 EUR/MW.

The graphic shows the average capacity prices for balancing control reserve in week 3

Reserve Power

FCR Capacity Prices

FCR (PRL) prices also remained relatively stable in week 3. Prices fluctuated between 100 EUR/MW and 135 EUR/MW; only on the weekend did prices rise to 177 EUR/MW. On average, capacity prices were at 136 EUR/MW this week and thus below the weekly average of the previous week (weekly average CW2: 167 EUR/MW).

The graphic shows the prices for FCR balancing control in week 3

Market Watch - Previous Reports

Market Watch Germany - CW 2

Mild temperatures and strong wind led to fairly low demand for energy from thermal power plants in CW2. Except for the first two days of the week, wind exceeded 30 GW every day. The peak of the week was on Sunday evening at just under 37 GW. In contrast, PV recorded one of its weakest weeks in the current dark season. The midday peaks fluctuated between 2 GW on Wednesday and 8 GW on Saturday; at no time during the entire week did PV reach 10 GW. The high wind reduced the residual load during the night from Tuesday to Wednesday and on Sunday to 20 GW. The maximum residual load on Tuesday and Wednesday was at 54 GW.

This graphic depics the production of wind and PV and the residual load of week 2

Spot Market

Short Term Prices

Due to the high wind and mild temperatures, electricity prices on the short-term exchanges fluctuated at a low level for this time of year. Tuesday marked the most expensive day of the week with baseload at 40.52 EUR/MWh. There were no negative prices in CW2. The Day-Ahead reached the weekly low in the early hours on Wednesday at an average of 0.10 EUR/MWh. Intraday prices did not fall as much. The reason for the deviation of Intraday to Day-Ahead prices in the night from Tuesday to Wednesday was the considerably stronger demand in power (4 GW above forecast).

The graphic shows the short-term prices of CW 2

Reserve Power

Average Reserve Power Energy Prices

Average positive mFRR (MRL) energy prices in week 2 were higher in comparison to the last few weeks. In the first half of the week, average prices were almost constantly at 4,000 EUR/MWh, only from Friday onwards did prices settle back below 2,000 EUR/MWh. The TSOs activated a maximum of 500 MW of positive mFRR between Tuesday and Thursday. The maximum activation of positive aFRR (SRL) was at 1.3 GW on Wednesday afternoon. Positive aFRR energy prices remained mainly between 500 EUR/MWh and 1,000 EUR/MWh, with higher prices occurring only on Thursday. In contrast to positive mFRR, average negative mFRR prices were higher in the second half of the week compared to the first half. However, prices did not fall below -4,000 EUR/MWh throughout the week. There were activations of negative mFRR on Saturday and Sunday with a maximum call of 548 MW. Average negative aFRR prices exceeded 1,000 EUR/MWh only in the second time slice on Thursday, the maximum activation was at -1.3 GW on Sunday evening.

This graphic shows the average control reserve prices of calendar week 2

Reserve Power

Average Reserve Power Capacity Prices

The average capacity prices for positive control energy in CW2 hardly differed from those in the first calendar week. Daily peaks of the two positive control energy products fluctuated between 5 EUR/MW and 20 EUR/MW. The average capacity prices for negative control energy were slightly lower than in the previous week. Peak negative mFRR capacity prices fluctuated between 1 EUR/MW and 18 EUR/MW. With the exception of Sunday, the highest average negative aFRR capacity prices ranged between EUR 12/MW and EUR 21/MW.

The graphic shows the average capacity prices for balancing control reserve in week 2

Reserve Power

FCR Capacity Prices

With a weekly average of 167 EUR/MW, FCR (PRL) prices in calendar week 2 were at the same level as in week 1 (weekly average in week 1: 170 EUR/MW). Since January 3rd 2020, the fluctuation of daily values has been on a relatively narrow band between 120 EUR/MW and 170 EUR/MW. Only last Sunday, there was an outlier with a price of 276 EUR/MW.

The graphic shows the prices for FCR balancing control in week 2

Market Watch Germany - CW 1

Welcome to 2020! Because our Power Market Report was on holiday in week 52, you find notes on the most important events of that week in this week’s report below. Enjoy!

After three windy weeks in December, wind was rather low during the Christmas holidays – with a low of 3 GW on December 26th. At the end of 2019, wind once again demonstrated its influence on the German electricity mix and climbed to 32 GW on Monday evening. On New Year’s Eve, wind flattened out, but increased again in the further course of the first week in 2020, peaking at 41 GW on Saturday. Since PV fluctuated between 3 GW and 12 GW, as in previous weeks, the residual load was primarily influenced by wind: On windy days, the residual load dropped close to 10 GW, while the weekly high was on Thursday at 44 GW.

This graphic depics the production of wind and PV and the residual load of week 1

Spot Market

Short Term Prices

On December 24th, DayAhead was negative for six hours, but the reduced wind meant that there were no further negative short-term prices until the end of the year. Negative prices did not occur in week 1 either, but the high wind pushed DayAhead to 0 EUR/MWh several times. Since wind was below its forecast on Friday morning and power demand exceeded its forecast on Saturday, Intraday prices did not drop quite as much. The high residual load last Thursday made for the most expensive day in the new year so far - baseload was at just under 40 EUR/MWh.

The graphic shows the short-term prices of CW 1

Reserve Power

Average Reserve Power Energy Prices

The only significant activation of positive mFRR (MRL) was on Wednesday shortly before midnight (300 MW). At the same time, the highest activation of positive aFRR (SRL) of the week occured with 1.05 GW. At the time, the average energy price for both products was just under 2,500 EUR/MWh. The average positive aFRR price did not exceed 2,500 EUR/MWh in the first calendar week, and positive mFRR only rarely did. In contrast, the demand for negative balancing control was significantly higher in CW1. On four days of the week (Monday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday), negative mFRR was activated (with daily peaks between -500 MW and -700 MW). The highest activation of negative aFRR was on Thursday morning in the second time slice with a capacity of -1.9 GW (86 % of the available negative aFRR). Average negative aFRR prices ranged from -360 EUR/MWh to -1,215 EUR/MWh. Average negative mFRR prices stayed, except for a few outliers, below -2,500 EUR/MWh.

This graphic shows the average control reserve prices of calendar week 1

Reserve Power

Average Reserve Power Capacity Prices

The daily peak of average positive aFRR capacity prices fluctuated in week 1 between 10 EUR/MW and 20 EUR/MW. Average positive mFRR capacity prices followed the course of aFRR and peaked slightly below the aFRR price. Except for the peaks in the 5th time slice (4-8 p.m.), capacity prices of both control reserve products were close to 0 EUR/MW. The average negative aFRR and mFRR prices developed very similarly. Average negative aFRR capacity prices were almost constantly slightly above negative mFRR prices. Negative aFRR peaked daily between 25 EUR/MW and 50 EUR/MW, negative mFRR peaks fluctuated between 10 EUR/MW and 30 EUR/MW.

The graphic shows the average capacity prices for balancing control reserve in week 1

Reserve Power

FCR Capacity Prices

FCR (PRL) prices ranged between 122 EUR/MW and 235 EUR/MW in CW1. The week’s average price was at 170 EUR/MW. Thus, FCR prices in CW1 were on average slightly above those in week 51 of 2019, in which the average FCR price was at 150 EUR/MW.

Market Watch Germany - CW 51

Wind dominated the German energy mix once more in the third week of Advent. Although the weekly peak (33 GW on Wednesday) remained below peak values of the last weeks, the residual load was reduced to only 20 GW daily. In the nights from Tuesday to Wednesday and from Friday to Saturday, the residual load even fell well below 20 GW. PV peaked between 4 GW on Sunday and 10 GW on Thursday, as in previous weeks.

Spot Market

Short Term Prices

Strong wind ensured relatively low prices on the energy markets in week 51. With a Day-Ahead baseload at 40.84 EUR/MWh, Monday marked the most expensive day of the week. On the weekend, the Day-Ahead fell below 10 EUR/MWh for several hours, but there were no price turbulences as in CW 50. Only Intraday prices were negative on Saturday from 2 a.m. to 4.30 a.m. and drifting towards 0 EUR/MWh in the nights from Tuesday to Wednesday and from Wednesday to Thursday. Responsible for the strong deviations of Intraday from Day-Ahead prices was wind, which exceeded forecasts by about 4 GW in both periods.

Reserve Power

Average Reserve Power Energy Prices

The highest average energy price for positive mFRR (MRL) since the implementation of the technical price cap on October 17th 2019 remained without implications because there was no activation in week 51, despite the dominance of volatile wind. The extreme average price of 7.322 EUR/MWh for positive mFRR in the first time slice on Thursday was probably due to one market participant offering 1.2 GW (of a total of 1.255 GW) with staggered energy prices between 7,210 and 7,800 EUR/MWh. Average positive aFRR (SRL) prices were also significantly higher than in the previous week, but never above 5,000 EUR/MWh. Negative aFRR was activated several times on Wednesday and Thursday with a capacity between 200 MW and 400 MW. However, compared to the energy prices for positive balancing control, negative balancing control prices were significantly more moderate. The average negative mFRR and aFRR prices fluctuated between -200 EUR/MWh and -2,500 EUR/MWh.

Reserve Power

Average Reserve Power Capacity Prices

The average positive mFRR and aFRR capacity prices mirrored EPEX Spot price developments: Prices peaked in the shoulder hours (4 – 8 a.m. and 4 – 8 p.m.), and the daily peaks decreased continuously over the course of the week. With the exception of Monday, negative aFRR capacity prices peaked around 20 EUR/MW, while negative mFRR capacity prices fluctuated around 10 EUR/MW.

Reserve Power

FCR Capacity Prices

Compared to previous weeks, FCR (PRL) capacity prices decreased significantly again in week 51. While the weekly average in week 50 was still at 219 EUR/MW, it was at 150 EUR/MW in the past week. The highest and lowest FCR prices were also relatively close to each other: On Tuesday, the price was lowest at 122 EUR/MW, whereas it peaked on Thursday at 184 EUR/MW.

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