Power Market Report

Spot Market & Control Reserve Market

Here you find our up-to-date power market report, an analysis of last week's prices on the German spot market and control reserve market. Every week directly from our Trading Floor.

Market Watch Germany - CW 47

As in previous weeks, wind was once more the dominant driver in the German electricity market in week 48. With a peak value of 38.5 GW, wind was as high as it was on September 30, when the storm Mortimer hit Germany. Disregarding this peak, the wind curve resembled the shape of a bell: At the start of the week and on the weekend, wind was below 10 GW. Until Thursday afternoon, wind increased continuously, but then decreased again. As in week 47, PV reached a midday peak above 10 GW only on Saturday and fluctuated between 3 - 7 GW in the midday of the remaining weekdays. The residual load that had to be covered by thermal generation and imports was highest on Monday (66 GW in the early evening), decreased with the rising wind until Thursday and increased again with the decline in wind during the rest of the week - even on the weekend.

powermarket report: renewable production cw 48

Spot Market

Short Term Prices

Spot prices reflected the residual load. On Monday, the baseload was at 51.12 EUR/MWh on the Day-Ahead market – thus peaking in week 48. With the rise in wind and the simultaneously falling residual load, short-term electricity prices also fell during the following days. Thursday morning marked the low of the week: While the Day-Ahead reached minimum prices of 2 EUR/MWh, the average Intraday price was negative for almost two hours. With the rising demand for fossil fuels, the electricity price rose again in the short term until the end of the week. Intraday prices only deviated from day-ahead on Friday for a longer period, when wind exceeded its forecast for a duration of just under 16 hours.

power market report: short term prices cw 48

Reserve Power

Average Reserve Power Energy Prices

This 16 hour forecast deviation on Friday caused the activation of negative mFRR (MRL) in CW48 (4.15-4.30 p.m.: 300 MW). At this time, the average price of negative mFRR was just below 1,000 EUR/MWh. Positive mFRR was also only activated once this week: On Wednesday from 9.15 to 9.30 a.m., when demand was almost 3 GW above forecast and 400 MW were called. The average energy price for positive mFRR was at 1,013 EUR/MWh at that time. The highest activation for negative aFRR (1,177 MW) occurred on Friday between 12:45 and 1 p.m., when the average electricity price for negative aFRR was at 688 EUR/MWh. The highest call for positive aFRR was on Sunday evening (8.45 – 9 p.m.: 752 MW) with a price of 560 EUR/MWh on average.

power market report: reserve power prices, cw 48

Reserve Power

Average Reserve Power Capacity Prices

Capacity prices followed the pattern of last week: Daily peaks for positive control energy were in the penultimate time slice (4 p.m. to 8 p.m.) of each day, and the highest capacity prices for negative control energy were in the first time slice (12 a.m. to 4 a.m.) of each day. While in the last weeks, however, positive control energy was almost always at a higher price than negative control energy, it were the prices for negative control energy which prevailed over positive control energy in CW48. In the first time slices on Thursday and Friday, when the Day-Ahead price was well below 20 EUR/MWh, the average price for negative aFRR was at 22 EUR/MW and 31 EUR/MW, respectively, while average capacity prices for negative mFRR peaked around 40 EUR/MW.
Due to the low spot prices, thermal generation was reduced to a minimum, which meant that negative reserve capacities were scarce and consequently prices negative reserve capacities were pricey. The highest average capacity price for positive aFRR was at about 15 EUR/MW on Tuesday. The maximum price for positive mFRR was at just over 25 EUR/MW on Friday.

power market report: reserve power capacity prices, cw 48.

Reserve Power

FCR Capacity Prices

The four-week downward trend of the FCR (PRL) prices was broken in week 48. In the course of the past week, the average FCR price was at 191 EUR/MW. For comparison, in week 47 the weekly average was at 116 EUR/MW.

power market report: fcr capacity prices, cw 48.

Market Watch - Previous Reports

Market Watch Germany - CW 47

CW 47 started windy. In the early hours of Tuesday, wind amounted to 31 GW and thus peaked early in the week. Only about 24 hours later, on Wednesday, wind was merely at 800 MW and thus at the lowest level of the month. Only on the weekend did wind again rise to an output close to 30 GW. PV just exceeded 10 GW on Saturday and fluctuated between peaks of 4 and 8 GW on the remaining days. PV could therefore not compensate the low wind in the middle of the week, resulting in a high residual load that exceeded 60 GW several times.

A depiction of the renewable production and residual load of the past week

Spot Market

Short Term Prices

The high and low wind also reflected in the price developments on the spot exchange in CW 47. In the night from Monday to Tuesday, wind pushed the Day-Ahead down to 25 EUR/MWh. Since wind actually surpassed the forecast by 7 GW, Intraday prices even turned negative. On Wednesday, on the other hand, the low wind provided for the highest short-term prices of the week - Day-Ahead baseload was at 53.35 EUR/MWh. As the week progressed, spot prices fell again until Day-Ahead was at 7.57 EUR/MWh between 5 a.m. and 6 a.m. on Sunday morning. Reason for the price drop were the increase in wind as well as a reduction in electricity demand on the weekend.

A depiction of last week's short-term prices

Reserve Power

Average Reserve Power Energy Prices

The volatile wind did not affect average reserve energy prices. Average positive mFRR (MRL) was below 2,000 EUR/MWh throughout the week. The average energy prices for positive mFRR were mostly around 1,000 EUR/MWh, but showed some outliers towards the end of the week. With 4,420 EUR/MWh, positive aFRR (SRL) reached the maximum average energy price of the week between 4 p.m. and 8 p.m. on Saturday. As supposedly one market player offered 1.3 GW with staggering prices between 5,900 and 6,900 EUR/MWh, also the average price went up significantly. The average energy prices for negative control energy remained below 2,000 EUR/MWh during the whole of CW 47. There was only one call of negative mFRR late on Monday evening (10 p.m. to midnight), when wind exceeded the forecasts. At that time, the average energy price for negative mFRR was at 589 EUR/MWh.

Average reserve power energy prices

Reserve Power

Average Reserve Power Capacity Prices

The average capacity prices reflected the price development of the spot prices and maintained the pattern of the last weeks most of the time: positive control energy usually peaked in the 5th time slice (4 p.m. to 8 p.m.). Positive mFRR and aFRR peaked on Wednesday and Thursday, when spot prices also were at their highest – providing control energy capacity thus came with high opportunity costs. The average capacity prices for negative mFRR and aFRR peaked in the first time slice (12 a.m. to 4 a.m.) daily and stayed below 10 EUR/MW throughout the week.

A depiction of last week's average reserve power capacity prices

Reserve Power

FCR Capacity Prices

The downward trend in the FCR (PRL) market continued in week 47. After the weekly average FCR capacity price in CW 46 was at 146 EUR/MW, it fell to 116 EUR/MW in CW 47. Wednesday marked the low of the week with FCR capacity prices of 100 EUR/MW, whereas the high was on Sunday with 133 EUR/MW. The drop of FCR capacity prices may be attributed to the expansion of battery storage. With the phase-out of nuclear energy, a rise in FCR prices was forecasted, resulting in growing investments in battery storage, as these are technologically well suited for FCR. Thus, FCR from battery storage units has increased in recent years. Another reason for the low FCR capacity prices could also be the auction design: every successful bid receives the marginal capacity price, which results in low incentives to bid high capacity prices.

A depiction of the FCR Capacity Prices of the past week.

Market Watch Germany - CW 46

In contrast to the low wind last week, wind once again dominated the electricity supply in CW46. In the course of Monday, wind energy tripled and remained almost entirely above 20 GW on Tuesday. On Friday morning, wind peaked with a capacity of 32 GW. On the weekend, wind was volatile and feed-in fluctuated between 5 GW and 25 GW. PV was low due to the gloomy fall weather and only peaked above 10 GW on Thursday. During the week, the residual load was above 50 GW every day - even on windy days. High residual load persisted over the weekend.

A depiction of the renewable production and residual load of the past week

Spot Market

Short Term Prices

Due to the strong wind, the Day-Ahead base contract for Germany started at a moderate average of 41.11 EUR/MWh at the beginning of the week. With wind flattening, short-term prices rose until Wednesday evening, but decreased continuously in the second half of the week. However, prices at EPEX Spot did not fall as much on the weekend as in the last weeks; the average prices for the Day-Ahead base contract were at 38.10 EUR/MWh and 36.82 EUR/MWh on the last two days of the week. Electricity prices on the Intraday market only differed considerably from the Day-Ahead prices on Friday. Reason for this was the wind, which delivered significantly below forecast.

A depiction of last week's short-term prices

Reserve Power

Average Reserve Power Energy Prices

The average energy prices for positive control energy (SRL and MRL) reached their highest level since the introduction of the technical price cap on October 17th in CW46. In the third time slice on Monday (8 a.m. - noon), the average energy price for positive SRL was 6,659 EUR/MWh. Out of a total of almost 2 GW, 1.3 GW were offered for 8,500 EUR/MWh to 9,999 EUR/MWh, and the price structure of these bids suggests a maximum of three providers. The highest average energy price for positive MRL was at 5,430 EUR/MWh in the last time slice on Friday (8 p.m.–midnight). Here, presumably one provider offering 1.1 GW with staggered prices between 7,500 EUR/MWh and 9,999 EUR/MWh caused the high average price. The prices for negative balancing energy, on the other hand, did not show any outliers. The average energy prices of negative SRL were well below 1,000 EUR/MWh throughout the week, the average energy price for negative MRL exceed 2,500 EUR/MWh only in one time slice.

A depiction of last week's average reserve power energy prices

Reserve Power

Average Reserve Power Capacity Prices

Prices for balancing energy continued in the pattern of CW45: Capacity prices for positive SRL and MRL peaked daily in the early evening hours (4 p.m.-8 p.m.). The weekly high of the two positive control energy products were at 39 EUR/MW (MRL on Wednesday) and 23 EUR/MW (SRL on Thursday), which is slightly below previous week. Average capacity prices for negative control energy were at their highest in the first time slice (12-4 a.m.). From 8 a.m. on, the prices for negative SRL and MRL were about 0 EUR/MW daily.

A depiction of last week's average reserve power capacity prices

Reserve Power

FCR Capacity Prices

In CW46, the PRL capacity prices continued to fall - a trend that has now lasted for three weeks. Week on week, the average marginal PRL price fell from 174 EUR/MW to 146 EUR/MW. Capacity prices fluctuated between 120 EUR/MW (Thursday & Friday) and 174 EUR/MW (Tuesday).

A depiction of the FCR Capacity Prices of the past week.

Market Watch Germany - CW 45

CW 45 recorded the lowest share of renewables of the current quarter to date. Only on Thursday did wind rise rapidly to 20 GW, merely to flatten out to below 5 GW again just as quickly. As usual for this time of year, PV hardly exceeded 10 GW and could therefore not compensate for the lack of wind. As a result, thermal power plants had to provide more than 60 GW almost daily. It was not until the weekend that the lower demand for electricity resulted in a lower residual load.

A depiction of the renewable production and residual load of the past week

Spot Market

Short Term Prices

In view of the high residual load, short-term electricity prices were also at a relatively high level. With the exception of last Monday, the average day-ahead prices for the base contract were above 40 EUR/MWh every day - even on the weekend. The prices at EPEX Spot reached their peak on Wednesday evening (between 6 p.m. and 7 p.m., the Day-Ahead base contract was at 87 EUR/MWh), at the same time the residual load also reached the peak of the week. A significant difference between Day-Ahead and Intraday prices only occurred on Thursday, when PV peaked and exceeded the forecasts by almost 10 percent.

A depiction of last week's short-term prices

Reserve Power

Average Reserve Power Energy Prices

Due to low wind, there were hardly any outliers in the average energy prices for control energy. On average, the prices for positive SRL were below 1,000 EUR/MWh. On Thursday and Saturday evening, when wind had exceeded previous peaks, the prices for positive SRL reached their high. Energy prices for positive MRL fluctuated between 1,000 EUR/MWh and 2,000 EUR/MWh over the course of the week. The average prices for negative MRL peaked in the second time slice of Thursday (4 a.m.-8 a.m.: 2,505 EUR/MWh), when the wind started increasing towards this week’s peak. There was no MRL call throughout the week, however. The average energy prices for negative SRL were constant during the week at around 1,000 EUR/MWh, and in the noon and evening hours of the weekend they were several times below 100 EUR/MWh.

A depiction of last week's average reserve power energy prices

Reserve Power

Average Reserve Power Capacity Prices

In line with the price peaks on the short-term electricity markets, the average capacity prices for positive MRL and SRL were highest in the evening hours. The average prices for positive SRL ranged between 10 EUR/MW and 30 EUR/MW, while average positive MRL prices were several times over 50 EUR/MW. A clear pattern emerged for the capacity prices for negative control energy: negative MRL and SRL were most expensive in the first two time slices (0-4 a.m. and 4-8 a.m.) of each day, with average prices rarely exceeding 20 EUR/MW in the first half of the week and not exceeding 10 EUR/MW in the second half.

A depiction of last week's average reserve power capacity prices

Reserve Power

FCR Capacity Prices

The decrease in PRL capacity prices continued in week 45. While the prices for PRL in week 44 were still at an average of 200 EUR/MW, the PRL capacity prices in week 45 were at a weekly average of 174 EUR/MW. The lowest average price was reached on Tuesday (140 EUR/MW), followed one day later by the peak of the week (214 EUR/MW).

A depiction of the FCR Capacity Prices of the past week.

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