
Afraid of the dark
In the German language, there is a word that refers to the fear of having inadequate sunshine or wind to maintain a viable supply of renewable energy: dunkelflaute. The dramatic connotation of the word may be lost a bit in translation, but essentially, dunkelflaute means “a dark lull”.
This “phenomenon” would be relatively easy to counteract nowadays, despite popular myths to the contrary that persist. Even if these have been disproven, discussion on the topic does not subside, revealing a lack of courage to find a new way of organizing our energy supply system. For the most part, this stems from the fact that no one really knows what the energy market will look like 50 years from now and which technologies will become the most important. We see this as a good opportunity to review some basic facts and sketch out potential ways forward.
Despite nightmare scenarios that suggest otherwise, the energy transition is actually right on track. Since 2003, renewable energy power production has increased: as of last year, renewables accounted for a 38 percent share of the Germany energy mix. Furthermore, the cost of providing power through renewable energies is sinking at an accelerated rate, while local blackouts are at an all-time low (large-scale regional blackouts are unheard of in Germany). Additionally, the renewables industry sector provides jobs for hundreds of thousands of people. Conventional power plant operators seem to increasingly feel the need to rekindle debates on the subject despite a lack of relevant arguments.
The climate summit in Paris marked the end of the big ideological battles, and the sinking costs for PV, wind power, and batteries mean that renewables are also winning the big economic battles. Now, however, a technocratic battle drives the discussion: How do we supply the needed gigawatts at a low price in the event solar and wind do not produce any power? All of a sudden, there is a new monster under the bed: the dunkelflaute, a creature invoked more often than not by conventional power plant operators.
Things are a lot less scary if we take a closer look at the risks stemming from certain weather conditions. We believe the market already contains the proper means of solving dunkelflaute issues. Our argument seems to have the backing of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy, which has stated it supports an energy-only market. This means that the market will decide which technology should take over in the event that weather conditions lead to a production shortfall. The technology with the lowest marginal costs is most likely the one that will end up covering power production. More to the point, however, is the definition of “a long time” when it comes to periods without wind or solar power production.
Become part of the VPP
Given the magnitude and the complexity of this challenge, one thing is clear: There is no single solution to solving the dunkelflaute “problem.” Instead, it requires a series of changes in how we use and perceive our power system. It starts with aggregating small-scale units in a VPP, or, to put it another way: harnessing the advantages of digitalization. However, more than anything else, we need the courage to believe in new technology, because it is nearly impossible to determine exactly which technologies will form the pillars of the energy system in 2050. Nevertheless, we need to start making progress and moving forward instead of hesitating and waiting for the perfect solution. We should also find the courage to end subsidies for conventional fossil technology such as lignite. Furthermore, conventional over-capacities need to be drastically reduced to create an incentive for moving forward. We believe the market will adjust to the new conditions and that we will see new, merit-based flexibility options that will reflect the needs of the changing energy system. In the end, our greatest fear should be climate change – not a dunkelflaute scare crow.
This article is a translation of a previously released article from the German Newspaper "Tagesspiegel".