The International Perspective Is Decisive
According to the analysts, any consideration of the electricity market has to bear in mind that our electricity market is situated in a heavily interconnected European power grid. Let us hypothetically assume that Germany has a lot of installed PV and France has very little installed photovoltaics: If a European long-term fair weather period occurs, as in the summers of 2018 and 2019, a lot of cheap PV electricity will flow from Germany via the Rhine to France, and this at very low prices due to the oversupply. Although there is no oversupply of PV in France in this scenario, the market value per PV system drops there due to the very cheap German PV electricity.
Of course, factors outside the development of photovoltaics also play a role: the very weak development of wind energy, for example, was well below the assumptions of the study. Possible fluctuations in oil, coal and gas prices due to conflicts and political crises are also factors of uncertainty. For all CO2-emitting energy sources, the costs of international and currently discussed national emissions trading for heat and transport are further variables. But at least one thing is clear: If fossil raw material prices rise, this will have a positive impact on the PV market value.
"Here Comes the Sun" Is Still no Funeral March
Due to the study by r2b energy consulting, the electricity traders of Next Kraftwerke were able to substantiate their assumptions for a secure and lasting basis for the marketing of solar power in PPA models. Since the first PV systems will fall out of public funding at the beginning of the 2020s, there is a strong need for viable marketing concepts. We can now provide our customers with a solid and well-founded assessment of the revenue opportunities and, based on the study data and our own surveys, realise sustainably successful PPA contracts in the PV sector.
Since the study results are quite sensitive data from our company's point of view, precise figures unfortunately had to be omitted from this article. However, we can clearly say that the future for the generation of electricity from photovoltaics - not only in Germany - looks quite sunny.